The Sullivan Report notes that The Fed faces new risks as job growth weakens, unemployment claims rise, and credit card debt surges - threatening consumer spending ahead of the FOMC meeting.

Following the last employment report and revisions, The Fed cutting rates in September was anticipated. Stronger-than-expected PPI data challenges expectations of a Fed rate cut in September, with core prices rising 3.7% annually.

Oil prices are expected to decline this year and next which will impact inflation, consumer spending, some regional economic performances, drilling activity, and oil-well cement consumption in the United States. Each of these factors impact the near-term outlook for the economy and cement consumption.

The data released this week [July 28, 2025] that stagflation is now here. It suggests a near-term future of higher inflation in the context of a weakening economy and job market. This makes policy decisions on interest rates more difficult. The urgency to cut rates carries more weight in the context of the weakening of the labor market.

Compared to a consensus expectation of 100,000 net new private sector jobs, the ADP National Employment Report showed a decline in 33,000 jobs in June 2025 with the weakness concentrated in the service sector. Construction recorded a 9,000-jobs gain.

Few economists expect he Federal Reserve to cut the federal funds interest rate this week at the upcoming FOMC meeting. Most expect the Fed cut will occur at the September meeting. However, those assumptions are being reconsidered. The possibility of no Fed rate cuts this year is now on the plate for analysis. Recent survey of economists puts the odds of a September cut at 100%. The one thing I know is, if 100% of economists agree on something, bet against it.

Harsh tariff talks prompts some to expect an economic downturn. Unfortunately, this may all be the calm before the storm. Prospects of tariffs will disrupt an already fragile economic growth path. Other factors weighing against near-term growth include a weakened dollar, aggressive illegal immigration control, pauses in funding on government contracts, and looming increases in federal debt.

The Federal Reserve Dual Mandate is to maintain stable inflation and low unemployment. Unfortunately, today’s economy is characterized by both increases in inflation and unemployment. Stagflation is when economic growth turns negative. Raising rates too fast could result in recession. Lowering them too quickly could result in inflation. Fed policy can address one – not both.