New labor and inflation data show economic cooling, raising the likelihood of faster Fed easing and lower long-term interest rates into 2026.

The Sullivan Report analyzes the post-2026 IIJA replacement, outlining four policy scenarios and their implications for U.S. cement demand, infrastructure spending, and market risk.

The Sullivan Report’s Fall/Winter 2025 Economic Forecast reveals weaker demand, elevated inflation, and unresolved labor and federal funding challenges – potentially heightening risks and slowing construction recovery into late 2026.

The 2025 federal government shutdown ended after six weeks with a short-term funding deal - through Jan. 2026 - delaying key issues but causing modest GDP and construction funding impacts.

U.S. cement and construction markets face another year of contraction given inflation's impact on highway construction, a broken Highway Trust Fund, and IIJA replacements.

The Sullivan Report's latest update details alternative economic scenarios to its Baseline forecast. It assesses the potential for different outcomes under various assumptions regarding the impact of tariffs, monetary policy, and overall economic resiliency through 2030.

Oil prices are expected to decline this year and next which will impact inflation, consumer spending, some regional economic performances, drilling activity, and oil-well cement consumption in the United States. Each of these factors impact the near-term outlook for the economy and cement consumption.

According to The Sullivan Report, of the total 5.3% drop in 2024 total cement and concrete consumption, retail construction accounted for nearly 1/4 of the decline. Tracking retail construction is critical to assessing the economic impact of the downturn in 2025 cement and concrete construction - and tracking the potential timing and recovery that may materialize in 2026.