All Posts

Introduccion In the decades ahead, the need for more electricity will be fueled by the level and composition of expected economic growth. Artificial intelligence and cloud computing, for example, require massive, continuous power for data processing and infrastructure cooling. Simultaneously, the sweeping transition to electric vehicles (EVs) and electric building heating will shift traditional fossil fuel dependencies directly onto the electrical grid. Longer term, intensify

Near Term Resilience Continues Data this week reveals a resilient economy amid increasing adverse headwinds. Second quarter real GDP growth, for example, was revised upward from 1.5% to 2.2%. Consumer spending showed strength growing at 3.8% - and may be accrued to tax refunds. Business investment remained strong- reflecting continued strength in AI/data center spending. A critical source of the upward GDP revision was inventory accumulation. With inventories at an inventory-

Introduction In the middle of a difficult period for housing and traditional nonresidential building, one sector has emerged as a force powerful enough to alter growth in regional cement markets. Growth in the construction of data centers in recent years has been extremely strong and does not appear to be slowing down anytime soon. Understanding where this boom is headed, and what forces will eventually govern its pace, has become one of the more important analytical issues f

IIJA AUGUST 2026 REPLACEMENT SUMMER 2026 FORECAST MIDDLE EAST NEWS & IMPACT ON CONSTRUCTION RECOVERY

Overview The US cement market has been in a decline for three consecutive years. This translates into more than a 10 million metric ton decline since 2022. The volume loss has pushed clinker utilization rates lower, reduced reliance on imports, and prompted a moderation in cement and concrete pricing. The principal reasons for this retreat have been elevated inflation's impact on interest rates and its erosion in the strength of public spending programs. These dual adverse im

Introduction It's easy, right now, to be pessimistic about the near-term construction outlook. The dominant story-lines impacting national construction for some time has been elevated inflation and interest rate levels. Recently, both those measures are moving in the wrong direction for a recovery to take place. And while data center or other mega project construction can add optimism to the near-term outlook, they are local/regional bright spots -- not national. It wasn't to

Profile New England is characterized by a mature and diversified economy, slow population growth, tight labor markets, and an old housing stock. These conditions limit new residential and nonresidential development. Construction activity is anchored by infrastructure work and residential repairs rather than expansion, resulting in steady but modest cement consumption with limited volatility through the forecast period. New England is not a growth market for cement, and it rep

Profile The Mid-Atlantic Financial Corridor is characterized by a large, diversified, and institutionally anchored economy, high population density, and a construction market shaped by legacy infrastructure and capital-intensive activity. The region contains the nation's primary financial center, a dense concentration of corporate headquarters, major ports and logistics systems, and long-established urban and suburban development patterns. These characteristics support steady

Profile The Desert Mountain Region accounts for approximately 5% of total U.S. cement consumption. Arizona represents 58% of that volume, reflecting both its population scale and its industrial build-out. Nevada contributes 28%, while New Mexico accounts for the remainder. The composition of demand is relatively even across the key sectors. Public construction accounts for 36%, with construction related to high tech nonresidential accounts for 32%, and residential accounts fo

Overview A broad-based construction recovery will not materialize until interest rates ease. An easement in interest rates is contingent on a reduction in inflation. Last month I offered optimism that the peace accord with Iran could usher in lower inflation and hence lower interest rates. That qualified optimism was based on a durable peace and a gradual reopening of shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. The resumption of hostilities has pushed back a meaningful rec

Introduction The week's economic data painted a picture of remarkable macroeconomic resilience --- with nonfarm payrolls increasing well above expectations at 115,000 new jobs created in April, the services sector expanding for a 22nd consecutive month, and a trade balance running 55% below year-ago deficit levels on a cumulative basis. But beneath the surface, forward-looking signals suggest the full weight of geopolitical and inflationary pressures has yet to arrive. For ce

Overview Sustained supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz due to the Iran conflict has sent oil prices higher. This in turn has elevated inflation and prompted a rise in interest rates. Mortgages, for example, dipped below 6% prior to the conflict and now stand at 6.5%. High interest rates are the largest adverse factor confronting construction activity. The hindrances to shipping through the Strait, reduces world oil supply -- prompting a price increase. The full fo

March 2026 economic data signals a softening, but the outlook hinges on Strait of Hormuz disruptions driving oil prices, inflation, and construction risk.

Understand three Alternate economic construction and cement forecasts analyzing how the Iran conflict is impacting inflation, rates, and the timing of a U.S. construction recovery.

The Sullivan Report's Spring 2026 Construction, Cement & Concrete Outlook analyzes how geopolitical risks may delay construction recovery and reshape cement demand.

AI’s impact on jobs unfolds in stages - slowing hiring first, displacing some roles next, and eventually lowering rates to support construction growth.

After three consecutive years of decline, the U.S. cement and concrete industries have lost more than 10 million metric tons of annual cement consumption since their 2022 peak. High inflation and elevated interest rates continue to suppress public and private construction activity, particularly homebuilding. Despite a structural underbuild of millions of homes, affordability remains the key constraint. Let's explore 6the mortgage rate outlook and why a 5.5% threshold is criti

Economic data support a Fed pause as inflation stays elevated, labor markets cool, and interest rates remain higher into early 2026.

December jobs data shows the labor market cooling without recession risk, reinforcing a Fed pause as attention shifts to inflation trends.

New labor and inflation data show economic cooling, raising the likelihood of faster Fed easing and lower long-term interest rates into 2026.