Economic Forecasts

March 2026 economic data signals a softening, but the outlook hinges on Strait of Hormuz disruptions driving oil prices, inflation, and construction risk.

Understand three Alternate economic construction and cement forecasts analyzing how the Iran conflict is impacting inflation, rates, and the timing of a U.S. construction recovery.

The Sullivan Report's Spring 2026 Construction, Cement & Concrete Outlook analyzes how geopolitical risks may delay construction recovery and reshape cement demand.

AI’s impact on jobs unfolds in stages - slowing hiring first, displacing some roles next, and eventually lowering rates to support construction growth.

After three consecutive years of decline, the U.S. cement and concrete industries have lost more than 10 million metric tons of annual cement consumption since their 2022 peak. High inflation and elevated interest rates continue to suppress public and private construction activity, particularly homebuilding. Despite a structural underbuild of millions of homes, affordability remains the key constraint. Let's explore 6the mortgage rate outlook and why a 5.5% threshold is criti

Economic data support a Fed pause as inflation stays elevated, labor markets cool, and interest rates remain higher into early 2026.

December jobs data shows the labor market cooling without recession risk, reinforcing a Fed pause as attention shifts to inflation trends.

New labor and inflation data show economic cooling, raising the likelihood of faster Fed easing and lower long-term interest rates into 2026.

New labor and inflation data show economic cooling, raising the likelihood of faster Fed easing and lower long-term interest rates into 2026.

The Sullivan Report analyzes the post-2026 IIJA replacement, outlining four policy scenarios and their implications for U.S. cement demand, infrastructure spending, and market risk.

Explore alternative baseline, optimistic, and pessimistic economic scenarios as explored by The Sullivan Report in its Alternative U.S. Economic Cement Outlook: Fall/Winter 2025.

The Sullivan Report’s Fall/Winter 2025 Economic Forecast reveals weaker demand, elevated inflation, and unresolved labor and federal funding challenges – potentially heightening risks and slowing construction recovery into late 2026.

The 2025 federal government shutdown ended after six weeks with a short-term funding deal - through Jan. 2026 - delaying key issues but causing modest GDP and construction funding impacts.

U.S. cement and construction markets face another year of contraction given inflation's impact on highway construction, a broken Highway Trust Fund, and IIJA replacements.

CPI eases to 3.0% YoY as Fed prepares rate cuts; lower yields and a 2026 construction recovery take shape amid ongoing government shutdown.

With Jerome Powell’s term as Chair ending in 2026, the direction of monetary policy—and its impact on interest rates, inflation, and construction—may hinge on his successor.

The shutdown crisis escalates: government RIF plans signal permanent layoffs, amplifying risks of lost spending, weak confidence, and lasting economic harm.

The Home Insurance Crisis? Climate change disasters. Skyrocketing premiums. Insurers leaving markets. Construction codes' dramatic shifts.

The Sullivan Report's latest update details alternative economic scenarios to its Baseline forecast. It assesses the potential for different outcomes under various assumptions regarding the impact of tariffs, monetary policy, and overall economic resiliency through 2030.

The Sullivan Report notes that The Fed faces new risks as job growth weakens, unemployment claims rise, and credit card debt surges - threatening consumer spending ahead of the FOMC meeting.