Cement & Concrete Forecasts

March 2026 economic data signals a softening, but the outlook hinges on Strait of Hormuz disruptions driving oil prices, inflation, and construction risk.

Understand three Alternate economic construction and cement forecasts analyzing how the Iran conflict is impacting inflation, rates, and the timing of a U.S. construction recovery.

The Sullivan Report's Spring 2026 Construction, Cement & Concrete Outlook analyzes how geopolitical risks may delay construction recovery and reshape cement demand.

AI’s impact on jobs unfolds in stages - slowing hiring first, displacing some roles next, and eventually lowering rates to support construction growth.

After three consecutive years of decline, the U.S. cement and concrete industries have lost more than 10 million metric tons of annual cement consumption since their 2022 peak. High inflation and elevated interest rates continue to suppress public and private construction activity, particularly homebuilding. Despite a structural underbuild of millions of homes, affordability remains the key constraint. Let's explore 6the mortgage rate outlook and why a 5.5% threshold is criti

New labor and inflation data show economic cooling, raising the likelihood of faster Fed easing and lower long-term interest rates into 2026.

The Sullivan Report analyzes the post-2026 IIJA replacement, outlining four policy scenarios and their implications for U.S. cement demand, infrastructure spending, and market risk.

Explore alternative baseline, optimistic, and pessimistic economic scenarios as explored by The Sullivan Report in its Alternative U.S. Economic Cement Outlook: Fall/Winter 2025.

The Sullivan Report’s Fall/Winter 2025 Economic Forecast reveals weaker demand, elevated inflation, and unresolved labor and federal funding challenges – potentially heightening risks and slowing construction recovery into late 2026.

The 2025 federal government shutdown ended after six weeks with a short-term funding deal - through Jan. 2026 - delaying key issues but causing modest GDP and construction funding impacts.

U.S. cement and construction markets face another year of contraction given inflation's impact on highway construction, a broken Highway Trust Fund, and IIJA replacements.

The Home Insurance Crisis? Climate change disasters. Skyrocketing premiums. Insurers leaving markets. Construction codes' dramatic shifts.

The Sullivan Report's latest update details alternative economic scenarios to its Baseline forecast. It assesses the potential for different outcomes under various assumptions regarding the impact of tariffs, monetary policy, and overall economic resiliency through 2030.

Oil prices are expected to decline this year and next which will impact inflation, consumer spending, some regional economic performances, drilling activity, and oil-well cement consumption in the United States. Each of these factors impact the near-term outlook for the economy and cement consumption.

According to The Sullivan Report, of the total 5.3% drop in 2024 total cement and concrete consumption, retail construction accounted for nearly 1/4 of the decline. Tracking retail construction is critical to assessing the economic impact of the downturn in 2025 cement and concrete construction - and tracking the potential timing and recovery that may materialize in 2026.

With the passing of OBBBA (One Big Beautiful Bill Act), the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) allocated $46.5 billion for “physical barriers” along the Mexican border including walls, fencing, pedestrian and vehicle barriers, security access roads, and surveillance equipment. As The Sullivan Report notes, one aspect of OBBBA is how the building of The Wall will have a positive impact on the 2025 - 2030 economic forecast for cement and concrete consumption.

Regardless of political preference or tariffs, shifting immigration policies stand to have a strong impact on the labor market conditions facing the construction industry as well as hospitality and agriculture. This can increase the shortage of construction workers, projects initiated, pricing, and market economics overall.

Regardless of political preference or tariffs, shifting immigration policies stand to have a strong impact on the labor market conditions facing the construction industry as well as hospitality and agriculture. This can increase the shortage of construction workers, projects initiated, pricing, and market economics overall.

The Administration rolled out very aggressive “reciprocal” tariffs levied on 90 countries. If implemented, those tariffs would have raised the cost of cement imports entering the U.S. market by 19%. While the new tariff regime is a reduction from the initial concept, make no mistake, they will cause U.S. economic distress and adversely impact construction activity and cement consumption.