Construction Forecasts

March 2026 economic data signals a softening, but the outlook hinges on Strait of Hormuz disruptions driving oil prices, inflation, and construction risk.

Understand three Alternate economic construction and cement forecasts analyzing how the Iran conflict is impacting inflation, rates, and the timing of a U.S. construction recovery.

The Sullivan Report's Spring 2026 Construction, Cement & Concrete Outlook analyzes how geopolitical risks may delay construction recovery and reshape cement demand.

AI’s impact on jobs unfolds in stages - slowing hiring first, displacing some roles next, and eventually lowering rates to support construction growth.

After three consecutive years of decline, the U.S. cement and concrete industries have lost more than 10 million metric tons of annual cement consumption since their 2022 peak. High inflation and elevated interest rates continue to suppress public and private construction activity, particularly homebuilding. Despite a structural underbuild of millions of homes, affordability remains the key constraint. Let's explore 6the mortgage rate outlook and why a 5.5% threshold is criti

New labor and inflation data show economic cooling, raising the likelihood of faster Fed easing and lower long-term interest rates into 2026.

The Sullivan Report analyzes the post-2026 IIJA replacement, outlining four policy scenarios and their implications for U.S. cement demand, infrastructure spending, and market risk.

The Sullivan Report’s Fall/Winter 2025 Economic Forecast reveals weaker demand, elevated inflation, and unresolved labor and federal funding challenges – potentially heightening risks and slowing construction recovery into late 2026.

The 2025 federal government shutdown ended after six weeks with a short-term funding deal - through Jan. 2026 - delaying key issues but causing modest GDP and construction funding impacts.

U.S. cement and construction markets face another year of contraction given inflation's impact on highway construction, a broken Highway Trust Fund, and IIJA replacements.

The Sullivan Report's latest update details alternative economic scenarios to its Baseline forecast. It assesses the potential for different outcomes under various assumptions regarding the impact of tariffs, monetary policy, and overall economic resiliency through 2030.

Oil prices are expected to decline this year and next which will impact inflation, consumer spending, some regional economic performances, drilling activity, and oil-well cement consumption in the United States. Each of these factors impact the near-term outlook for the economy and cement consumption.

According to The Sullivan Report, of the total 5.3% drop in 2024 total cement and concrete consumption, retail construction accounted for nearly 1/4 of the decline. Tracking retail construction is critical to assessing the economic impact of the downturn in 2025 cement and concrete construction - and tracking the potential timing and recovery that may materialize in 2026.

Two reports released recently suggest single-family construction may be headed for a larger correction than many expected. Even though the builder confidence in NAHB Homebuilder Confidence for July 2025 showed a one-point improvement, it now stands at 38 – extremely pessimistic.

With the passing of OBBBA (One Big Beautiful Bill Act), the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) allocated $46.5 billion for “physical barriers” along the Mexican border including walls, fencing, pedestrian and vehicle barriers, security access roads, and surveillance equipment. As The Sullivan Report notes, one aspect of OBBBA is how the building of The Wall will have a positive impact on the 2025 - 2030 economic forecast for cement and concrete consumption.

Even if rate cuts materialize at the September 2025 FOMC meeting, given lags, the impacts probably won’t materialize until after the peak construction season (April thru August) has passed. If so, real private construction will take a step back in 2025.

The Sullivan Report’s updated 2025 forecast reveals a darker outlook for single-family construction - citing higher interest rates, a weakening job market, and growing economic uncertainty. As a result, projected declines in U.S. cement and concrete consumption have deepened compared to its Spring forecast.

Regardless of political preference or tariffs, shifting immigration policies stand to have a strong impact on the labor market conditions facing the construction industry as well as hospitality and agriculture. This can increase the shortage of construction workers, projects initiated, pricing, and market economics overall.

Regardless of political preference or tariffs, shifting immigration policies stand to have a strong impact on the labor market conditions facing the construction industry as well as hospitality and agriculture. This can increase the shortage of construction workers, projects initiated, pricing, and market economics overall.

Immigration and tariffs may make the cost of building a new home even more expensive – worsening the near-term affordability difficulties facing home buyers. First-time homeowners are currently at the lowest level ever.