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March Data Weakens...But the Outlook Hinges on One Factor: Strait of Hormuz
March 2026 economic data signals a softening, but the outlook hinges on Strait of Hormuz disruptions driving oil prices, inflation, and construction risk.
Ed Sullivan
Apr 131 min read


Alternate Scenarios - 2026 Spring: U.S. Construction, Cement & Concrete Outlook
Understand three Alternate economic construction and cement forecasts analyzing how the Iran conflict is impacting inflation, rates, and the timing of a U.S. construction recovery.
Ed Sullivan
Mar 2512 min read


2026 Spring: U.S. Construction, Cement & Concrete Outlook
The Sullivan Report's Spring 2026 Construction, Cement & Concrete Outlook analyzes how geopolitical risks may delay construction recovery and reshape cement demand.
Ed Sullivan
Mar 1615 min read


AI: Job Creator, Destroyer, or Something in Between?
AI’s impact on jobs unfolds in stages - slowing hiring first, displacing some roles next, and eventually lowering rates to support construction growth.
Ed Sullivan
Feb 108 min read


When Will Lower Mortgage Rates Usher in the Construction Recovery?
After three consecutive years of decline, the U.S. cement and concrete industries have lost more than 10 million metric tons of annual cement consumption since their 2022 peak. High inflation and elevated interest rates continue to suppress public and private construction activity, particularly homebuilding. Despite a structural underbuild of millions of homes, affordability remains the key constraint. Let's explore 6the mortgage rate outlook and why a 5.5% threshold is criti
Ed Sullivan
Feb 49 min read


Labor Market Continues to Cool Without Cracking
December jobs data shows the labor market cooling without recession risk, reinforcing a Fed pause as attention shifts to inflation trends.
Ed Sullivan
Jan 92 min read


2026 Construction Outlook: A Market at a Saddle Point
New labor and inflation data show economic cooling, raising the likelihood of faster Fed easing and lower long-term interest rates into 2026.
Ed Sullivan
Jan 83 min read


Breaking News in the Construction Sector
New labor and inflation data show economic cooling, raising the likelihood of faster Fed easing and lower long-term interest rates into 2026.
Ed Sullivan
Dec 18, 20252 min read


The Coming Infrastructure Reset: Politics, Economics, & the Next "Big Bill"
The Sullivan Report analyzes the post-2026 IIJA replacement, outlining four policy scenarios and their implications for U.S. cement demand, infrastructure spending, and market risk.
Ed Sullivan
Dec 14, 20257 min read


The Government Shutdown's Resolution, Economic Impact & Construction Implications
The 2025 federal government shutdown ended after six weeks with a short-term funding deal - through Jan. 2026 - delaying key issues but causing modest GDP and construction funding impacts.
Ed Sullivan
Nov 13, 20252 min read


Highway Spending Faces Another Year of Decline
U.S. cement and construction markets face another year of contraction given inflation's impact on highway construction, a broken Highway Trust Fund, and IIJA replacements.
Ed Sullivan
Nov 11, 20257 min read


Summary: Alternative Mid-Year Economic Forecast Scenarios
The Sullivan Report's latest update details alternative economic scenarios to its Baseline forecast. It assesses the potential for different outcomes under various assumptions regarding the impact of tariffs, monetary policy, and overall economic resiliency through 2030.
Ed Sullivan
Sep 19, 20256 min read


Is The Fed September Rate Cut a Sure Thing?
Following the last employment report and revisions, The Fed cutting rates in September was anticipated. Stronger-than-expected PPI data challenges expectations of a Fed rate cut in September, with core prices rising 3.7% annually.
Ed Sullivan
Aug 15, 20252 min read


U.S. Economic Downturn More Likely
Recent evidence suggests the U.S. economy may be drifting toward a slower growth path - becoming fragile. While job numbers can be volatile, job growth is slowing and trend toward further weakening. There are signs consumer is struggling under the weight of inflation.
Ed Sullivan
Mar 20, 20258 min read
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