Fall/Winter 2025: U.S. Economic Construction & Cement Outlook
- Ed Sullivan
- Nov 16, 2025
- 14 min read
Updated: Dec 31
Economic Forecast
U.S. Construction & Cement Outlook
Introduction
The Fall Forecast reflects a cooling of consumer spending, an easing in labor market growth, and the potential of an accelerated monetary policy at a time when tariff-driven inflation cannot be discounted. These concerns are compounded by the potential inflationary and growth effects of aggressive immigration policy. Combined, these factors heighten uncertainty for businesses and consumers, casting a cloud over the United States economic outlook.
In the near term, the conditions influencing construction remain largely unchanged since our Summer 2025 Forecast. Despite recent reductions in the federal funds interest rate by the Federal Reserve, borrowing costs remain at a level high enough to choke off any meaningful recovery in the residential or nonresidential sectors.
Public infrastructure programs continue to see their potency erode under high-sustained, construction-related inflation. While data center and onshoring activities remain areas of strength, these sectors represent a small, albeit growing, sector of the overall construction market. They do not represent enough weight to offset the broader weakness of the nonresidential construction market.
These collective dynamics point to another significant decline in cement, concrete, and related industries for 2025 – with adverse conditions that are not expected to improve significantly until the second half of 2026. Only modest year-over-year declines are expected during the first half of 2026 not because things are improving, but because they are measured against weak 2025 volumes.
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