Two reports released recently suggest single-family construction may be headed for a larger correction than many expected. Even though the builder confidence in NAHB Homebuilder Confidence for July 2025 showed a one-point improvement, it now stands at 38 – extremely pessimistic.

With the passing of OBBBA (One Big Beautiful Bill Act), the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) allocated $46.5 billion for “physical barriers” along the Mexican border including walls, fencing, pedestrian and vehicle barriers, security access roads, and surveillance equipment. As The Sullivan Report notes, one aspect of OBBBA is how the building of The Wall will have a positive impact on the 2025 - 2030 economic forecast for cement and concrete consumption.

Even if rate cuts materialize at the September 2025 FOMC meeting, given lags, the impacts probably won’t materialize until after the peak construction season (April thru August) has passed. If so, real private construction will take a step back in 2025.

The Sullivan Report’s updated 2025 forecast reveals a darker outlook for single-family construction - citing higher interest rates, a weakening job market, and growing economic uncertainty. As a result, projected declines in U.S. cement and concrete consumption have deepened compared to its Spring forecast.

Regardless of political preference or tariffs, shifting immigration policies stand to have a strong impact on the labor market conditions facing the construction industry as well as hospitality and agriculture. This can increase the shortage of construction workers, projects initiated, pricing, and market economics overall.

Regardless of political preference or tariffs, shifting immigration policies stand to have a strong impact on the labor market conditions facing the construction industry as well as hospitality and agriculture. This can increase the shortage of construction workers, projects initiated, pricing, and market economics overall.

Immigration and tariffs may make the cost of building a new home even more expensive – worsening the near-term affordability difficulties facing home buyers. First-time homeowners are currently at the lowest level ever.

The Administration rolled out very aggressive “reciprocal” tariffs levied on 90 countries. If implemented, those tariffs would have raised the cost of cement imports entering the U.S. market by 19%. While the new tariff regime is a reduction from the initial concept, make no mistake, they will cause U.S. economic distress and adversely impact construction activity and cement consumption.