The Sullivan Report’s Fall/Winter 2025 Economic Forecast reveals weaker demand, elevated inflation, and unresolved labor and federal funding challenges – potentially heightening risks and slowing construction recovery into late 2026.

The 2025 federal government shutdown ended after six weeks with a short-term funding deal - through Jan. 2026 - delaying key issues but causing modest GDP and construction funding impacts.

U.S. cement and construction markets face another year of contraction given inflation's impact on highway construction, a broken Highway Trust Fund, and IIJA replacements.

CPI eases to 3.0% YoY as Fed prepares rate cuts; lower yields and a 2026 construction recovery take shape amid ongoing government shutdown.

With Jerome Powell’s term as Chair ending in 2026, the direction of monetary policy—and its impact on interest rates, inflation, and construction—may hinge on his successor.

The shutdown crisis escalates: government RIF plans signal permanent layoffs, amplifying risks of lost spending, weak confidence, and lasting economic harm.

The Sullivan Report's latest update details alternative economic scenarios to its Baseline forecast. It assesses the potential for different outcomes under various assumptions regarding the impact of tariffs, monetary policy, and overall economic resiliency through 2030.

The data released this week [July 28, 2025] that stagflation is now here. It suggests a near-term future of higher inflation in the context of a weakening economy and job market. This makes policy decisions on interest rates more difficult. The urgency to cut rates carries more weight in the context of the weakening of the labor market.