Tariffs Nudge Economy Toward Recession
- Ed Sullivan
- Apr 7
- 8 min read
Updated: Oct 29
Sweeping Tariffs Add to Inflation, Disrupt Supply Lines, Weaken GDP, and the Job Market.
Overview
The U.S. economy’s strength is waning. Even prior to the tariff announcements, evidence suggested that the economy was drifting to a slower growth path. Job growth, a principal source of the economy’s strength over the past few years, has slowed. During the first quarter, an average of 174,000 net new jobs were created monthly - nearly 100,000 lower from a year prior.
Other data suggests an easing in economic growth. Uncertainty is rising among consumers and businesses with many struggling to keep up with inflation. Defaults on credit cards, student loans, and mortgages are rising. This all paints a picture of a slowdown.
Tariffs hold significant adverse impact on near-term economic growth. These policy initiatives arguably hold the potential for heightened longer-term growth. For now, let’s only focus on near-term impacts and how they relate to the prospects of an economic slowdown. For this analysis, while these tariffs could be negotiated down, the public announcements are taken at face value.
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