The Good, The Bad, & The Ugly

Alternative Scenarios to The Sullivan Report - Cement Outlook Baseline Spring 2025 Forecast

---

---

Introduction

All forecasts contain risk. Risks can originate from the data used, the process of calculations, the assumptions, or a combination of each element. Indeed, an infinite number of alternative scenarios to the Baseline forecast exist – each materializes with even small changes in assumptions.

The risks surrounding the Spring Forecast are extremely high. They

center on assessments regarding underlying strength of the economy and the headwinds that face the near-term economy. The key assessments include:

1. The impact of administration policies on the economic fundamentals.

2. Federal Reserve monetary policy actions.

3. The strength and resiliency of consumer spending.

---

The Baseline Scenario

The “Baseline” forecast is believed to be the most likely scenario that will unfold. The Baseline Scenario has been presented in detail to subscribers of The Sullivan Report: Cement Outlook. To recap, the Baseline Scenario suggests that the economy’s strength is easing. Uncertainty, tariff policies, immigration reform, and DOGE all add to the near-term economic easing.

Want to read more?

Subscribe to thesullivanreport.com to keep reading this exclusive post.

Subscribe Now