As Expected, ADP Jobs Report Shows Continued Labor Market Cooling

Market Update

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Compared to a consensus expectation of 100,000 net new private sector jobs, the ADP National Employment Report showed a decline in 33,000 jobs in June 2025. The weakness was concentrated in the service sector. Small business shed the most jobs, possibly a reflection of tariffs impact on their business. Construction recorded a 9,000-job gain. Most of the strength that materialized was concentrated in the central portions of the U.S.

The report serves as an estimate for the “official” BLS jobs report that will be released tomorrow, July 3, at 8:30 AM Eastern. The BLS report plays an important role in the Federal Reserve’s policy formation. The accuracy of the ADP report in predicting the BLS results are dubious. The ADP report, however, can signal trends.

As such, the ADP report’s data reinforces the trend expected in The Sullivan Report’s Spring Forecast which reflects a gradual slowing in the labor market and overall economic activity during the second half of 2025 and continuing into the first half of 2026. Tomorrow’s BLS report is the important one to watch regarding labor market conditions.

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The Sullivan Report delivers subscription-based economic forecasts and market updates tailored to the cement, concrete, construction, and aggregates industries. Its flagship publication, the Cement Outlook, is released three times a year and features 5-year forecast projections, expert analysis, and actionable insights to support informed decision-making and long-term strategic planning amid an evolving economic landscape.

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